Week four Love / Hate: The Definitive Matthew Berry Information to Buying and selling Fantasy Soccer
Perhaps the only thing more unpredictable than fantasy football is fantasy football during a global pandemic.
At the moment we don't know when the Steelers-Titans game will be played, only that it won't be played in week 4. For a while, however, Tuesday was discussed as a possibility, and that could be a possibility in the future, more teams should go through positive COVID-19 tests. So it is a good time to remind any league commissioner that you need to make rules NOW to address such a situation.
What if the game was postponed after the Sunday games started? Or what if another game is canceled out of the blue? Using this week's example, it would not have been fair to the person in your league with Derrick Henry, for example, if the game was canceled at the last minute with no opportunity to respond with squad moves. My suggestion is to allow players to declare a sub before 1pm. ET Sunday. And if a game is unexpectedly canceled or postponed to another week, the scheduled backup will be retrospectively placed in the player's place by the league manager. Or decide that in the event of a missing backup (in a scenario where the games are abandoned without warning and a player loses a kicker, D / ST, or maybe QB – a position without a backup) I would retroactively assign the ESPN projection . These are just suggestions, but whatever you choose, you need to have a plan and communicate it to your league.
The more you can plan and think ahead, the better it is to deal with the unknown.
Which is what many of you are now dealing with at 1-2 or 0-3. You didn't expect Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Kenny Golladay, George Kittle, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, Jamison Crowder, Le & # 39; Veon Bell, A.J. Brown, Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, Julio Jones and Davante Adams are missing a significant time this early in the season.
You weren't expecting to run into a team in Week 1 that curled you up with Calvin Ridley, and while your boys were all leaving injured, you ran into Alvin Kamara in Week 2. Then last week when all of your guys finally met you got mahomesed on Monday night.
They didn't expect to be 1-2 or worse, 0-3.
But you are and you have to do something.
You have to win. #Analysis
Now, some of this is bad luck and nothing you can do to meet the highest scoring team each week. But mostly it balances out over the course of the year. And you're obviously hitting the waiver wire. Fine.
But in a year of so many massive injuries (and you know unfortunately more are to come) the most obvious way to improve your team is through trading.
And it's okay for me (or others, like my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft) to say … Yes, buy Deshaun Watson cheap!
But how? Suppose you don't play with idiots, they know you're desperate, and they also know that Watson's first three games were against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers and that his schedule is getting easier from this week onwards. You might also know the Texans have the second pass percentage, the fifth pass percentage of the red zone, and Watson will be fine. So I end up with a few names in my sights (and by and large I like the entire Texans offense as a potential buying dip, including Will Fuller V, David Johnson, and Brandin Cooks, which should be basically free) but before that we're talking about names , let's talk about the ability of trading in general.
There are tons of reasons why I hate vetoes and think they shouldn't be allowed or used unless there is clear and demonstrable collusion, but here's the biggest one: trading in imagination is a skill. It's part of being a successful fantasy manager.
I do at least one column on trades every year, and last year I decided to wrap them all up in the definitive Matthew Berry Guide to Trading. And the plan had been to just point it out this year. But then, you know, wild injuries in an already unpredictable season hit, so I'm updating it now.
May I humbly introduce the 2020 edition of the Definitive Matthew Berry Guide to Trading Fantasy Football:
If you start your listing with "I want Alvin Kamara," you are unlikely to get many positive results. AP Photo / Tyler Kaufman
Rate your team
So you've decided to trade. Great.
Before you can acquire anyone, you need to know what they can offer. In which positions do you have depth, where are you weak?
"I have no depth!" you scream at the screen. "That's why I have to act," you say. Because everyone is hurt. Fine. Then we create some depth.
Let's say you have no setbacks and only a decent WR, but you have Kyler Murray. So let's look at the waiver wire. Jared Goff (currently QB9 in the year) is available in 55% of the ESPN leagues. Joe Burrow (currently QB10) is 40% available. Ryan Fitzpatrick (you heard me) is QB14 and available in 88% of the leagues despite the brutal first game against New England. The idea here is that you can take a usable QB off the waiver wire and now you have Murray to do. That's not ideal, of course, but you can live with Goff, Burrow, Fitz, Stream of the Week, a lot more than with Devonta Freeman as a starter, you know? This year, QB, TE, and WR are the easiest spots on the waiver wire, in that order, to create "depth" for yourself. Nobody is going to trade against a QB waiver wire, but they will definitely trade for Kyler Murray.
Once your "trading plan" is in place, it is a good idea to rank the players on your team (at least mentally) by position and overall rank so that you really understand how you value each other.
Evaluate everyone else's teams
Do not aim at a specific player. Yes, you want Alvin Kamara. Everyone would. It's too narrow a window. It's much better to find teams that may have an extra return. Or, conversely, a team that needs something that you have an excess of – like good tight ends or a quarterback. Ideally, identify a few teams that are potential trading partners. Maybe there is a 3-0 team in your league ready to part ways with a star for Christian McCaffrey. You hate dealing with him, but when you're 0-3 you don't have the luxury of waiting for him to return. You have to win now and a 3-0 team can still afford a goal for a few more weeks.
Understanding your goal is crucial before attempting to act. Are you in must-win mode this week? Or maybe you have massive RB injuries and just need to plug that hole for the rest of the season. Or you are just trying to make a surplus and improve an area that you consider to be in need. Are you 3-0 and looking down the street? Understand the goal because for a simplified example from above, CMC makes sense for the 3-0 team, but obviously not for the team that has to win this week. 3. Establish the market.
Don't just send a few cold trade offers out of the blue through the league website. This has a high probability of just being rejected. Seeing just two players in an email is usually declined asap with no counters.
You need to start a conversation, and there are many ways you can do it: through the site messaging system, social media, or email; or if it happens to be your significant other who takes her to dinner and casually brings up the fact over dessert that her team is a good ending that can't be beat …
In general, I also don't like the trading bloc or the league announcement "so and so" is on the bloc. I always feel like this devalues the player, like you've already announced you are getting rid of them. The exception is when the player is really elite and there are no questions about them. And even in this scenario, you have to be selective. The message reads, "I hate doing this, but my RBs have been ravaged by injury and I have to do something. Russell Wilson is on the block. Make your best offer."
I wouldn't send this leaguewide. Just send it to the top three or four teams in the league, all copied onto the same snap or text. This creates a competition that leaders Wilson may or may not want, but they sure don't want their rival to get it. So you can play people off against each other.
One final little marketing ploy: set the line-up on your team to include the player you want to deal with as the starter. Makes him seem more valuable than sitting on your bench as a surplus rather than a valued member of your starting grid.
Connect with your potential trading partners.
Now your interest in something is open and it is time to speak to specific teams to see if there is mutual interest. If you responded to your antennae, great – you have a good starting point. If it's colder, do it casual and casual first. "Are you open to trade?" or such. You can specify your motif exactly if you want. "I need a response – are you open to a deal?" Because if not, why waste your time?
Matthew Berry, senior fantasy analyst at ESPN, and his unconventional cast of characters who take on the fun spirit of fantasy sports aim to make fantasy football players smarter and help them win their leagues. Watch the latest episode
Let's say Kamara is on one of the teams that you think have RBs left. Play it cool. Ask if they're willing to swap out one of their running backs instead of directly asking about their top pick and best player. Work with Alvin in the negotiations. If you receive such a request, you can of course also say no. But answer. Ignoring a reasonable and polite request is rude. And what are you doing too? You in that league or not? Say yes or no – just say something.
I'm perfectly fine with multiple negotiations, just as long as everyone is in front. If you say, "For your information, I sent offers to two other teams tonight," when you submit a bid, it is not a problem. Or: "I'm only talking to you about it, but I have to make a deal by Saturday. If we can't come to an agreement tonight, I'll turn to others." Whatever it is, just make sure you know who else you're talking to.
I sometimes like to make it an offer that could go either way to open negotiations. Earlier this week I sent a text that said, "You are open to trading with Mike Davis? Or are you interested in Christian McCaffrey? We should bring these crazy kids together." We'll see if a deal comes off (unlikely I wrote this article. A disadvantage of doing this job is that playing in leagues with people who can read, listen, or watch TV becomes much more difficult).
Also check out the schedule. Suppose you are in Win-Now mode. Can you trade Kenny Golladay this week (in the shadow of Marshon Lattimore this week, then see you again in week 5) for someone worse but having great matchups in the next two weeks, like maybe Tyler Boyd who is in the next two Has had weeks of great matchups with Jacksonville and Houston? plus a usable piece? In a vacuum, I'm obviously not dealing with Golladay for Boyd, but if you're 3-0 with tough matchups this might make sense.
Anyway, the idea was to open a dialogue where he had the choice of giving up someone or acquiring someone from me who in theory would have helped his team along the way. You never know what will pique someone's interest. Your goal at this point is to get them to speak openly with you about trading. Then you can negotiate.
After addressing a potential trading partner, your first question should be, "What do you need?" You already know what he / she can do for you. Let's find out what you need to do for them so that you can close a deal that will help them.
It is important to frame this request so that you can help. A guy named Crosby Spencer posted it on Twitter last year, "Somebody says," I'm interested in Player X, what do you want for him? "Great. Now you want me to research your team, to find a POTENTIAL match that might interest you in getting a player that I didn't want to trade. Anything so that you can turn me down if it's not a sponsorship deal? "
Make it as easy as possible for your potential trading partner. Not everyone has the same amount of time to think about how we do it.
Hear what the other player needs. Really listen. This only works when it's a two-way conversation about what the two of you need and want. Hearing their concern and excitement about the players is the best way to get something done and give you an edge in the negotiations.
Ask the prospective trading partner to place their players in the position you are considering. That way, you can do two important things: (A) get an idea of how they value certain players who may be different from your appreciation, and (B) have naturally put them in a position where they have unconsciously devalued some of their players (whoever they rank lowest). Be ready to publish your leaderboard too. Ideally, align your players to match the player you want to trade with in order to be "equal" to the player you want them to be.
When negotiating, do not treat your potential partner as if they are stupid. They aren't interested in swapping their subpar first week star for Frisman Jackson.
I hear a voice. "Berry! I'm mad at you!" He smiles. Me: yes? 1 of my calls is killing you? "No," he said. "I'm Frisman Jackson. And every time a man has just a good week my name is mentioned." And he laughs again. He's now with a car. Here's a fun convo with a fantasy football legend. pic.twitter.com/cBYZTCBiMI
– Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) September 18, 2020
Don't try to downplay the player you're trying to acquire or sell the guy you're dealing with. Don't lie about injuries or changes in value. Better to be honest because they already know (or soon enough they will) and they will trust you more when negotiating.
Don't be afraid to explain why you want to get a deal. Help them understand what's in it for you. "Yes, this player is in an RBBC but he will get most of the goal-line work. He will however never play for me because I have this backup that came up. And the difference between him and your top 15 WR is clear someone, so how can I fill in the void? "
Except for the rare occasions when I desperately need depth, I want to be the one who gets the best player in a deal. I'm trying not to do 2-for-1 deals unless I get that. But not all 2-for-1 deals actually have to be 2-for-1. If I'm the one offering the two players, I'll ask for a throw-in. These two guys for your stud and whoever you want to throw in. Or the worst WR you have, etc. etc. The 2-for-2 is strangely tastier than a 2-for-1 because there is a perception that you are "getting" something for your worst player.
You want to emphasize the positives, of course, but don't sell it as a steak if it's a hamburger. Better to sell than the best hamburger for the price.
Everyone is available. That has to be your mindset, regardless of whether you initiate or receive the trade offer. Never say, "Sorry, Kamara is not tradable." Because look, if someone has offered you Josh Allen, Dalvin Cook, Julio Jones and Travis Kelce for him and a certain duty roster, you are obviously doing this deal. You can say it would take quite a long time to get Kamara, you really appreciate it, but everyone is tradable in the right store.
Being willing to talk about your best player has the added benefit of being able to talk about his best player. When they think they can get Kamara (“So what would you give me for Kamara?”) And get them to talk out loud about the idea of the trade, say Kelce, Cook, and Julio, they started the idea of the trade to accept these players and you can recall the deal in a way that allows you to keep Kamara but still acquire Kelce. "That's not enough for Kamara, but what about X and Y for Kelce?" And now you're talking about Kelce, not Kamara. Make sense?
Put a time limit on it. "OK, please let me know at 10 tonight." Otherwise there are too many trades in the balance. It gives a sense of urgency to the business and lets the other person know you mean business. The longer a deal lasts, the less likely it is to close. Doubts set in and the excitement is lost.
No is no. If you make an offer and the other person says no, a follow-up may say, "Well, is there anything else you would consider for either way? Could we keep talking?" But if the answer is still no, you have to move on.
If the other person says they are negotiating with someone else, it is fair to ask, "Well, before you agree to a deal for Zeke, will you give me a chance to beat him? Maybe I can, maybe I can just like that. " They know you are getting the maximum value. "Gives you one last chance, gives you information about what others are doing in the league and if it's a no then at least you know you did your best.
There comes a point in the negotiation when it is time to make a solid offer, or you have received one that you must accept or decline.
First, understand that your goal is to improve your team, focusing on your starting grid. You don't have to "win" the trade in order for it to be valuable to you. You could give a top 10 quarterback for a decent flex that runs back, which on the surface means you "lost" the trade. But if that quarterback never played for you, and that was the best player available for you, and your starting line-up is better for it, then you have "won" too.
Not only do you need to think about how the business works for you if all is well, you also need to evaluate the soil. If everything goes horrible, how does trading affect you? Did you cover too much depth? Are you now an accidental injury away from the disaster? Everyone sees the benefit; Not enough people think about the downside.
My late great Uncle Lester used to say, "If you are at a game of poker with five other players and each has $ 100 and you've won $ 400, it's time to go. You've already won the most money." . "He would also say," If you can get 80% of what you want in a business, take it. Most people screw it up and try to get the last 20%. "My uncle was one of the really great negotiators who ever lived. Don't be greedy. And remember, it's only good deal if both parties are happy And if both people are happy but didn't get everything they wanted, then it's probably as close as possible to a perfect offer.
A deal is a deal as soon as both parties agree to it. I was in negotiations where the person and I verbally agreed to a deal, then I published it on the website and they rejected it. "I was concerned." No man … we agreed. We negotiated for two days. A deal is a deal. A person's word has to mean something, and whether a deal was negotiated orally, via text or email, or through the website, it is still a deal. Don't worry about technical details. All you have is your representative and your word.
A few farewell thoughts:
1. Understand that people are often blinded by the value of the name. Which is often different from actual production. Try to sell names. Try to acquire the production.
2. You should prepare for trades well before you need to make one. Take notes during the draft or auction. Who expressed disappointment or made the final bid on a player you purchased? This should be your first call while dealing with this player.
All you need this week:
• Full schedule »| Ranking list »
• Depth maps for each team »
• Transactions »| Injuries »
• Ranking of the Football Power Index »
More NFL coverage »
3. Don't be happy. Even if you've completely defeated someone, say that you think it was a fair deal. Suppose you play in a league with the same people year after year. The better you make someone feel like you are trading with you, including after the deal is closed, the easier the next negotiation will be. Plus, you never know when a deal is going to explode in your face. Don't make yourself worse by being an idiot.
4. Never veto. I mentioned it above and I will repeat it now. NEVER VETO, unless there is demonstrable collusion, every trade MUST stand.
Everyone should be able to lead their team the way they want to.
Even if it's not how you would do it.
Even if it's bad.
Especially when it's bad.
I've written extensively for years about being against veto, but seriously, veto is the coward's way out.
I literally got an email an hour ago from a guy named Mac Wake who told me he negotiated for a week and got a multiplayer deal to win Patrick Mahomes in his 2QB league. And his league vetoed it because: "We want to create a market where others can make offers for Mahomes." I'm like … what? There was no market. Mac created it by negotiating for a week. Just like anyone else could have done. Because Mac beat them and created the opportunity to purchase Mahomes, they go out lazy, cowardly, and pathetic. I don't know any of them, but I hate everyone in Mac's League who voted for that veto. You are everything that is wrong with fantasy football.
NEVER VETO. POINT.
5. I've also written about the importance of words. Some people use some really horrific and disgusting phrases when describing how to make a trade better, and it's more than deaf. Seriously. I don't go into my soapbox often, but I firmly believe it.
6. One last uncle lesterism. "The best way to double your money is to fold it up and put it in your pocket," he often said. Sometimes the best trades are the ones we don't make. Don't be afraid to go away.
Let's start with that. As always, "Love / Hate" is not a start / sit column, but rather players who I believe will not meet or exceed expectations. Always check my ranks to see where I have players related to others to see who I would start or sit. They will be updated until kick-off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. Two guys I could never swap – The Stat-a-Pillar from "The Fantasy Show" on ESPN +, Damian Dabrowski and "Thirsty" Kyle Soppe from the podcast "Fantasy Focus 06010" for their help on various places here.
Quarterbacks that I love in week 4
In the event that you go to the TL; Belong to DR folks who say, ugh Berry just get on with the players, Watson is a buying low, and his rise back to the guy you designed starts this week. The Vikings have allowed the third highest overtaking places this season, and while Watson's protection issues are known, I don't expect this to be an issue: Minnesota ranks 22nd in terms of the season's pressure rate and is ranked 22nd in terms of percentage of quarterback Contacts last died. Considering that Watson hasn't been that bad so far this season (17.5 FPPG despite opening against Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers), an easier week 4 matchup should bring big numbers. Make your trade for Watson now … just make sure the manager you are trading with is not reading this column first.
A year ago last Saturday, Burrow threw six touchdowns and completed 73.5% of his passes in a 66-38 blowout from Vanderbilt. I am not saying to expect the same against the jaguars. But Burrow could have a better degree of completion on Sunday. The Jaguars give up a league-worst completion rate of 80% – an important reason why they also gave up the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Incidentally, Burrow had 34 attempts to pass in that Vanderbilt game; He's had more than that in every game so far in the NFL. In fact, he's runner-up in the NFL this season on passes (and completions). That volume against the Jacksonville Defense suggests a big 4 week. Here's a wild stat: since 2014, only two QBs have scored a total of at least 60 Fantasy Points in their first three starts. Patrick Mahomes and … Joe Burrow. Burrow is a strong love for me against the jaguars or the commodores.
Matthew Berry states that despite the Bengals' recent offensive battles, he likes Joe Burrow in the week 4 matchup against the Jaguars.
You should start any fantasy defense against the giants. At this point, you should also consider starting a quarterback to face them. I mean, last week the Giants Nick Mullens gave up 327 yards and 9.5 yards per try. Goff has a YPA of 10.0 and five TD passes in his last two games, and the second highest percentage of completion on deep passes this season. Goff was still available in over 50% of ESPN's leagues and was a "love" for me back in the preseason when we pointed out that his passes and completions were still high. He was just unlucky with touchdowns. As a Top 10 Fantasy QB in 2018, he's back in my top 12 for this week. You don't have to bother too much with this topic: Goff will have a lot of success on Sunday.
Others get votes
If this is the Seattle Secondary with Jamal Adams, imagine what it would be without him. The Seahawks are giving up 430.7 yards per game this season and the second top fantasy score for opposing quarterbacks, putting Ryan Fitzpatrick on the streaming radar. Don't look now, but as of week 10 last year, Fitz is the sixth best QB in terms of total fantasy scores. Who knows when Tua will take over Tagovailoa, but right now Fitz is very viable. … Speaking of Florida QBs with interesting facial hair, despite last week's debacle, I'm back with Gardner Minshew II. Ten days to prepare for a Bengali defense that won't scare anyone. I don't think Chris Conley can play any worse than last week (famous last words). Minshew has made at least 40 pass attempts in the last two games.
Quarterback I hate week 4
Are you ready for soccer Play for FREE and answer questions about the game every Monday night. Make your choice
Is it always sunny in Philadelphia? Not if Wentz was the focus this year and every game was intercepted multiple times. It's hard to translate it all down to Philly's lineage and lack of weapons … but it's also hard to see how it soon improves. With Dallas Goedert and DeSean Jackson, Wentz will take to the field on Sunday with even fewer guns than he normally has. He will also take the field against a 49ers pass guard who, despite being posted, gives up the lowest yards per try, is tied for the lowest allowed touchdown passes, and is second best in the fewest allowed pass yards. In a game with one of the lowest over / under shots on the list, Wentz will start for Philly, but that doesn't mean he has to start for you.
Running backs that I love in week 4
Bill Belichick always takes one of his opponent's best players with him. We know it won't be Patrick Mahomes. Even Dark Lord Belichick doesn't have such powers. (We believe). Das lässt Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill und CEH zurück und es scheint viel wahrscheinlicher, dass Belichick sich darauf konzentriert, einen dieser etablierten Tierärzte gegenüber einem Neuling zu neutralisieren. Außerdem konnte New England Edwards-Helaire vielleicht nicht aufhalten, selbst wenn sie es wollten: Die Patrioten haben eine Liga-schlechteste Fangquote von 94,7% aufgegeben, um diese Saison zu unterstützen. Es ist eine Sache, Derek Carr den Dump-off wegzunehmen, wie sie es letzte Woche getan haben, aber das funktioniert nicht gegen Mahomes. Mittlerweile hat CEH in seinen letzten beiden Spielen 14 Ziele und 11 Fänge, ein wichtiger Grund, warum er in dieser Saison der vierte unter allen Running Backs ist.
Field Yates und Matthew Berry reflektieren Clyde Edwards-Helaires Fantasy-Ranking vor der Saison und wie es angesichts seiner bisherigen Produktion angemessen war.
Drake war der Deshaun Watson der Running Backs in dieser Saison: keineswegs schlecht, nur nicht das, was die meisten Fantasy-Manager erhofft oder erwartet hatten. Er ist auch wie Watson darin, dass dies die Woche ist, die er für Patientenmanager auszahlen sollte. Oder vielmehr die Woche, in der das Fenster zum Erwerb seiner Dienstleistungen unter dem Marktwert verschwindet. Carolina hat zugelassen, dass die zweithäufigsten Fantasy-Punkte in diesem Jahr zurücklaufen und die schnellsten Touchdowns auf den Rücken. Die Herausforderung in diesem Jahr bestand darin, dass Drake die Spiele nicht passierte, aber 33,3% der Ziele gegen Panther gingen an RBs. Die meisten in der NFL, daher erwarte ich, dass dieses Problem am Sonntag gelöst wird. Hinzu kommt, dass Drakes konstantes Volumen – durchschnittlich 19,7 Berührungen pro Spiel in diesem Jahr – der letzte sein sollte, der Panthers D missbraucht.
Scott Spratt und Matthew Berry brechen zusammen, warum sie das Matchup von Kenyan Drake gegen die Panthers mögen. Berry glaubt, dass sich das Fenster schnell schließt, um Drake in einem Trade günstig zu kaufen.
Robinson, der im April von der NFL – und im August von fast allen von uns – nicht entworfen wurde, würde wahrscheinlich bis zum Ende der zweiten Runde in jedem Fantasy-Entwurf gehen, wenn wir uns heute erneut entscheiden würden. Er ist der seltene Verteidiger, der das klare RB1 seines Teams ist. Er erhält 78% der TB-Berührungen von Jacksonville in dieser Saison und 86% der Berührungen der roten Zone. Und er produziert auch wie ein RB1: 26.0 FPPG in seinen letzten beiden Spielen. Diese Zahl könnte am Sonntag dank einer bengalischen Abwehr steigen, die in dieser Saison die zweithäufigsten zurücklaufenden Rushing Yards aufgegeben hat.
Andere erhalten Stimmen
Fünfunddreißig Berührungen, 241 Scrimmage Yards, zwei Touchdowns und 6,1 Yards pro Carry in seinen letzten beiden Spielen für Darrell Henderson Jr. Cam Akers werden diese Woche wahrscheinlich nicht spielen, und selbst wenn er es tut, bin ich mir nicht sicher, ob es wichtig ist, besonders gegen Ein Giants-Team, das, wie Sie vielleicht gehört haben, nicht gut ist. … Mein Co-Moderator bei "The Fantasy Show" auf ESPN +, Daniel Dopp, kann einen Eindruck hinterlassen: Old-Timey Prospector. Wenn er etwas anderes versucht, ist es einfach schrecklich. Zum Glück ist schreckliche Komödie ein Grundnahrungsmittel der Show. Trotzdem schätze ich einen guten Eindruck. Wie der Christian McCaffrey, den Mike Davis letzte Woche gemacht hat: 13 Trages, 46 Yards; acht Empfänge, 45 Meter und ein Touchdown; 23,1 Fantasy-Punkte bei 91,3% von Carolinas Rückläufen. Kein perfekter Eindruck, aber wir haben die Produktion definitiv erkannt. Ich freue mich auf seinen nächsten Auftritt am Sonntag. … So wie die Matchups der ersten drei Wochen für Deshaun Watson brutal waren, waren sie auch für David Johnson. Aber jetzt bekommt er eine Wikinger-Verteidigung, die es den fünfthäufigsten Werften ermöglicht hat, diese Saison zurückzulaufen. … Kareem Hunts Fantasy-Bestand steigt weiter: 10 Carry in jedem Spiel, 15,7 Berührungen pro Spiel und 11 Karies in der roten Zone und drei Goal-to-Go-Carry in der Saison. In einem Spiel, das Caesars SportsBook von William Hill mit einem Über / Unter von 56 und den Browns als Außenseiter hat, wird Cleveland wahrscheinlich einiges werfen. … Ronald Jones II spielte 11 Mal mehr Schnappschüsse als Leonard Fournette, berührte ihn mit 15: 9 und bekam doppelt so viele rote Zone- und Goal-to-Go-Anstürme. Jetzt ist Fournette verletzt und lässt Jones noch mehr Arbeit gegen a Die Verteidigung der Ladegeräte reist um 13 Uhr nach Osten Spiel mit fünf defensiven Startern aus.
Running Backs hasse ich in Woche 4
Wenn Sie drei gute Rückläufe haben, haben Sie keinen … zumindest keine gute Fantasie, die zurückläuft. Dieses Ravens Backfield ist so ein Komitee, wie es das Komitee nur kann:
Ingram: 9,3 Berührungen pro Spiel, 20,6 Schnappschüsse pro Spiel
Gus Edwards: 6,0 Berührungen pro Spiel, 15,7 Schnappschüsse pro Spiel
Dobbins: 5,0 Berührungen pro Spiel, 22,0 Schnappschüsse pro Spiel
Einer von ihnen hat sehr wahrscheinlich ein starkes Spiel gegen eine verprügelte Verteidigung in Washington, die Baltimore wahrscheinlich groß gewinnen wird, aber sie haben es zu sehr verteilt, als dass ich mich wohl fühlen könnte, wenn ich herausfinden würde, welcher RB hier die Arbeit in der roten Zone bekommt.
Matthew Berry nimmt ein W für seine Mark Ingram-Fantasy-Haltung und ein L für J.K. Dobbins, während er und Field Yates über den Stand des Laufspiels der Ravens nachdenken.
Kelleys Nutzung ging in Woche 3 zurück und spielte 20 Schnappschüsse zu Austin Ekelers 54. Ich glaube immer noch langfristig an Kelley, aber nicht diese Woche. Die Bucs haben in diesem Jahr nur 2,6 Yards pro Carry für Backs zugelassen und nur einmal in ihren letzten 20 Spielen haben sie einem RB erlaubt, 75 Yards auf dem Boden zu knacken. With Ekeler getting lead dog touches for a running back, Kelley is a low-end touchdown dependent flex.
A funny thing happened on the way to D'Andre Swift splitting touches with Kerryon Johnson. Peterson was released by Washington and signed by Detroit, becoming their lead running back in the process. That said, he's not a big part of the passing game, and game flow in this one might not present many opportunities to run. In Week 2, when the Lions were blown out by the Packers, Peterson had only seven touches. The risk of that happening Sunday makes Peterson a risky play, especially considering the Saints have the sixth-best rushing defense through the first three weeks and should get Michael Thomas back for a game in which they are favored.
Did you go out and grab Gaskin off the waiver wire? Great! Well done. He's going to have a nice year. Starting next week. Seattle's pass D is so bad that no one is running against them. Opponents have run the ball with backs a league-low 46 times this season. Seattle also gives up the fourth-fewest yards before first contact and the second-fewest yards after first contact. That's a long way to say: it's hard to run on the Seattle Seahawks. And we expect Fitz to have to throw a bunch, and while it's possible Gaskin is heavily involved in the pass game, I don't want to count on it. Gaskin is a low floor, not that high flex play on Sunday. That's a long way to say Gaskin is a Hate.
Pass-catchers I love in Week 4
Jacksonville has allowed four touchdowns to the slot so far this season, tied for most in the NFL, and Jaguars opponents are also completing 75% of their passes to the slot. That's where Boyd does his work. And he has had a lot or work lately, too: 21 targets in the past two games. You know I'm in on Burrow this week as well, so gimme the Burrow/Boyd stack, which sounds like a pancake special at a bad country diner.
Another main guy whose QB I like this week, Parker has had moderate success in both full games he has played this season, scoring at least 11 fantasy points in both. He might get 11 in the first quarter on Sunday against a Seahawks team that allows 73.2 FPPG to wide receivers so far this season. Yes, you read that right: 73.2. They've allowed at least one 100-yard receiver in every game this year and six total in three games. Seattle has also given up 27 more receptions and 400 more yards to receivers than the next-closest team.
Matthew Berry says the Dolphins will need to pass a lot in order to keep up with the Seahawks, which could result in solid fantasy production out of DeVante Parker.
If Baker Mayfield can get it to him — no guarantee, unfortunately — Beckham should score Sunday thanks to a Cowboys defense that has allowed a league-high six touchdowns to perimeter receivers. Dallas is also bottom five in yards allowed to perimeter receivers. Yes, Beckham is off to another slow start in fantasy, but he won't have a better opportunity to get on track than he does in Week 4.
As the saying goes, where there's a will, there's a way. And where there's a Vikings pass defense, there's an opposing receiver lighting them up. Minnesota has allowed a player to go over 110 receiving yards in all three of their games this season. I see no way this Will isn't the next to do it.
Teams facing Cleveland average 17 slot targets per game, second most in the league. The Browns also allow the most touchdowns to the slot and the second-most receptions and yards. Do you see where this is going? To the slot. Where we meet Lamb, the Cowboys' receiver who runs 87% of his routes from … you guessed it … the slot.
Others receiving votes
Even when Davante Adams returns, Allen Lazard has played his way into fantasy relevance. And there's little more relevant in fantasy than a receiver getting to play the Falcons. … Buffalo is bottom five in yards and receptions allowed to the slot, which means Hunter Renfrow has a chance to follow up his breakout performance from Week 3, especially given the health (or lack thereof) of the rest of the Raiders pass-catchers. … New Orleans allows the most fantasy points to tight ends this season and T.J. Hockenson continues to carve out a bigger role in Detroit's passing game with at least four catches and 50 yards in every game and a season-high seven targets in Week 3. … Not Amari Cooper, not Michael Gallup, not CeeDee Lamb, not even Ezekiel Elliott … it's Dalton Schultz, who leads the Cowboys in red zone targets this season. … Deeper league or DFS tight end need? Give me Robert Tonyan of the Packers. Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this year and Tonyan is coming off the best game of his career.
After his strong Week 3 vs. the Patriots, Field Yates and Matthew Berry evaluate Hunter Renfrow's fantasy value.
Pass-catchers I Hate in Week 4
Hilton managers hoped he might see an increase in production when only Parris Campbell went down. That hasn't happened. What has happened is now three games with four catches or fewer and only one red zone target all season. Meanwhile, the Bears are the only team yet to allow a wide receiver touchdown and they've also given up a league-low 54.1% catch rate to opposing wide receivers. T.Y. will remain M.I.A. in Week 4.
Arizona gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and they're tied for the fewest deep receptions surrendered on the season. This matchup sets up well for Mike Davis to continue his Christian McCaffrey impression, but not for Anderson to try out a Randy Moss one.
Yes, Graham had a breakout in Week 3. But the reason it's called a "breakout" is because him having a good fantasy performance is not the norm. Week 3 was his first game with 50-plus yards since Week 10 of last season. He's more likely to break back into being regular old Jimmy Graham this week against a Colts D that has yielded only six catches for 32 yards to opposing TEs.
Matthew Berry, the Talented Mr. Roto, wants you to know that defenses facing the Jets this year average 15 FPPG (most in the NFL) and defenses facing the Broncos this year are averaging 11 FPPG (second in the NFL). Just in case, you know, anyone feels like streaming.